As Odinga challenges the election outcome in court, the judiciary will have to stand strong against heavy political pressure and maintain its independence and faith in the integrity of the process. Yet still, seeing this election as a test of democracy is a bit too general more accurately, it is a test of the institutional reform (particularly in the judiciary) that came in the new constitution promulgated in 2010 after the post-election political violence in 2008 that killed 1,200 Kenyans. Given the concerns around democracy that emanate from Kenya’s neighbors, mainly Uganda and Rwanda, it is natural to look to Kenya as a democratic stronghold in East Africa. More broadly, the country is home to many positive trends, including one of the highest literacy rates in Africa, a growing middle class, and some of the most vibrant media on the African continent.
So there is reason to hope that Kenyan democracy and its elections will become models. Even the election crisis of 2007-08 resulted in a workable democratic compromise through a government of national unity, which laid the basis for a new reform constitution.
Since 1992, it has had uneven election experiences-some in which the results were contested, yet in the end were accepted by citizens-but it has had a functioning multiparty democracy since 2002. Since East Africa includes politically troubled countries such as Eritrea, South Sudan, and Somalia, where would one go to seek a model of democracy? Maybe Kenya. This election has been characterized as a test of democracy in East Africa. But in the meantime, we asked Atlantic Council Africa Center nonresident senior fellows Constance Berry Newman and Aubrey Hruby to paint a bigger picture of what this East African powerhouse faces in the longer term. Odinga has said he will challenge the result in court-adding to Kenya’s spotty recent history of contested elections. While Kenyan Vice President William Ruto was finally declared this week the winner of that country’s August 9 presidential election, the dust has yet to settle: Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, who reportedly received 48.85 percent of the vote to Ruto’s 50.49 percent, has dug in by officially challenging the result.
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